Avon Products (AVP) appears to be the perfect target for a takeover, according to recent news. Why is this? To understand the events that have transpired and to try to answer this question, I developed the below timeline that summarizes the situation.
Timeline of Events Transpired Over the Last Year
2011- Avon celebrates 125 years in business and operates in 100 countries, with 80% of total revenue coming from overseas. However, falling profits have been reported for the last three years and even stronghold markets such as Brazil and Russia are suffering.
January 2012- The company faces a bribery investigation that suggests a violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, that led to its vice chairman's ouster. The probe initially involved only executives in Asia, but it spread as federal regulators began looking into the company's dealings with financial analysts.
March 2012- Discussions between Coty and Avon begin behind closed doors.
April 2, 2012- Coty made a public offer for Avon Products at the $10 billion level, which would have made it the largest U.S. acquisition of the year (according to Dealogic). Avon responded the same day, saying “Coty's indication of interest of $23.25 per share does not provide a compelling reason for Avon to deviate from its current plans. Under the circumstances, Avon's Board is convinced that rejecting Coty's indication of interest is in Avon shareholders' best interests.”
April 9, 2012- Avon announces new CEO, former Johnson & Johnson executive Sherilyn McCoy.
May 1, 2012- First quarter earnings are announced. Avon reported that its first-quarter net income tumbled 82 percent, even more than Wall Street had feared.
May 9, 2012- Coty sends a letter to Avon with a new offer and commentary regarding their process in the development of bid. The new bid reflects an increase of about 6.5 percent, to $24.75 per share from $23.25 per share and also names financing partners, including Berkshire Hathaway. A deadline is set for a response by end of day May 14.
May 10, 2012- Avon releases a copy of the letter with simple statement “Avon's Board of Directors will consider the letter in due course.”
May 13, 2012- Coty issues press release simply saying “Avon Products, Inc. today advised Coty Inc. that Avon's Board of Directors, in conjunction with management and the company's financial and legal advisors, will consider Coty's letter dated May 9, 2012. Avon's Board expects to respond within a week.”
May 14, 2012- Coty officially closes the door and withdraws it bid after not receiving Avon’s response by deadline. Investors follow suit. Avon shares end day down 11%
VIDEO
May 15, 2012 at 1:30am Eastern- Avon releases a statement only saying that they responded promptly, noting they needed a one week timeframe, but that Coty withdrew its bid.
May 16, 2012- Rumors surface that Richmont Holdings (which led the management buyout of Mary Kay cosmetics in the mid-1980s and was once Avon Products' largest shareholder) is considering making an investment or acquisition of Avon.
My Reaction
First off, this is not over. Avon will continue to be the target for takeover bids. And, after reviewing the timeline, it is easy to see why. However, if the company wants to operate professionally and not have a sinking stock price, they need to majorly alter their communication strategy.
Coty’s letter from May 9th points out publicly that Avon was non-responsive in the many attempts for conversation. Avon should have understood the risks and the potential backlash from their shareholders for not responding promptly and according to the rules following this letter. Additionally, this appears to have been both an attractive and well thought out bid. Avon’s responses should not have been one-sentence press releases (which two of them were), but also well thought out and include details for their reasoning behind their process. Of course, I would be remiss to not point out that there was never a single individual named or quoted in the statements made by Avon. They lacked any type of personality or humanization, which is likely another reason that the public was put off. The lifeless tonality on top of an executive team with a bad reputation (or in the case of the CEO, no real reputation at Avon yet), leaves little confidence for the investor. At this stage, Avon should be considering some outside expertise in crisis communication and image repair before they are in a worse position than my timeline already lays out.
Sources: Information for this blog post was found via Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Avon corporate website and Coty corporate website.